Guided story

How is climate change changing India?

A readable walk through the most important data, from the temperature rise you can already feel to the CO₂ that is still rising, and why fairness matters.

How is climate change changing India?

India’s climate is shifting in measurable ways. The national average temperature has climbed about 1.5°C since the 1940s. The rainfall that feeds farms and fills reservoirs is swinging more wildly. The Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are creeping up the land. And the same fossil-fuel smoke that warms the planet chokes the air people breathe. But India’s part in the cause is small per person and historically tiny next to the countries that industrialised first. Here is what the numbers say, chart by chart.

Chart 2

Every season is hotter than it used to be

OWID / Copernicus ERA5 · average monthly temperature, selected years

°C
17.9

Dec · latest point

15.020.025.030.0JanAprJulSepDec17.917.817.417.317.3
2015–242000–091980s1960s1940s

This is the most direct way to feel the warming: the whole seasonal curve has lifted, decade by decade.

Each line is one year's temperature across the 12 months, low in winter, high before the monsoon. Later years (the coral 2025 line) sit above earlier ones at almost every month.

How to readEach line is one year's temperature across the 12 months, low in winter, high before the monsoon. Later years (the coral 2025 line) sit above earlier ones at almost every month.

Watch outThese are national monthly averages, so they understate local extremes; the point is the gap between the lines, not any single month's value.

How much hotter has India actually become?

The chart does not simply show the temperature. It shows the temperature anomaly, the gap between each year’s average and the 1991–2020 baseline. That is a careful way of saying: a value of 0.07°C in 2025 sounds tiny, but it is measured against a period that was already warmer than the mid-20th century. In 1940, the anomaly was –0.92°C. By 2024, it reached +0.57°C. That is a swing of roughly 1.5°C. And because this is a national average, it smooths out the spikes that a labourer in Nagpur or a family in a Delhi slum actually endures. The average is gentler than the reality. The real danger is in the hottest days, which are growing in number.

Chart 3

Each decade hotter than the last

Our World in Data · decade average

°C vs 1991-2020
1940s
-0.7
1950s
-0.8
1960s
-0.4
1970s
-0.4
1980s
-0.3
1990s
-0.3
2000s
0.0
2010s
0.2
2020s
0.2

Every decade since the 1970s has been warmer than the previous one, with the 2010s averaging 0.3°C above the baseline.

This chart groups the anomalies into ten-year averages. The first three decades (1940s to 1960s) all sit below the baseline, with the 1940s around –0.7°C. The 1970s rise to near zero, and from the 1990s onward, each decade is firmly above zero. The 2010s reach +0.3°C, and the partial 2020s already exceed that. The step-like rise shows that the warming is not cyclical; it is a staircase.

How to readEach bar is a decade; the trend is the bar heights rising monotonically.

Watch outDo not compare a single year to a decade; the point is the persistent decadal climb.

What does a century of warming look like?

Climate stripes transform the same anomaly numbers into a field of colour: blue for cooler-than-normal years, red for hotter. In the first half of the record, blue dominates. Then the stripes turn a persistent, deepening red. There are no axes, no labels, just the colour. The message is instant: the last few decades are unlike anything India’s instruments recorded before. The warming is not a theory. It is a colour that keeps getting stronger.

Chart 4

How much hotter India is than normal

Our World in Data · Temperature anomaly

°C vs 1991-2020
0.1

2025 · latest point

-2.0-1.00.01.0194019601980200020200.1

India’s annual temperature anomaly has swung from –0.92°C in 1940 to +0.57°C in 2024, a warming of about 1.5°C.

This line chart plots the temperature anomaly each year against the 1991–2020 baseline. In the 1940s and 1950s, the bars are mostly blue, meaning cooler than normal. By the 1980s, they begin to flip to red, and since the 1990s, nearly every year has been above the baseline. The highest anomaly in this record is 0.66°C in 2016. Because the baseline itself is already warmer than the earlier decades, even a small positive anomaly signals significant extra heat. The national average hides much larger spikes in specific regions and cities, especially during summer.

How to readLook for the transition from blue to red bars and the upward trend line; the value is the gap from the 1991–2020 average.

Watch outDo not read a small recent anomaly as 'little warming'; the baseline period was already warm.

Is each decade really hotter than the last?

Averaging the anomalies into decades removes the year-to-year noise and reveals the staircase. The 1940s and 1950s were around 0.7°C below the 1991–2020 norm. The 1960s were still below, but less so. After the 1970s, the decades crossed into positive territory and kept climbing. The 2010s were around 0.3°C above the baseline. The single warmest years, 2016, 2017, 2018, all sit inside the two most recent decades. The data does not reverse; each decade has been warmer than the one before it.

Chart 5

...and how dirty the air has been, year after year

World Bank · EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3

µg/m³
48.4

2020 · latest point

40.050.060.070.080.020002020

Annual average PM2.5 exposure fell from 62 µg/m³ in 1990 to 48.4 µg/m³ in 2020, but remains over nine times the WHO guideline.

This line chart shows the mean annual exposure to PM2.5 across India. The slow decline is likely due to cleaner cooking fuels and some industrial regulations. However, 48 µg/m³ is still extremely high, the WHO recommends an annual average of no more than 5 µg/m³. This means that, despite progress, the average Indian is breathing air that poses serious health risks. The improvement, while real, is far from sufficient.

How to readThe downward trend is positive, but note the y-axis scale: the values are still very high.

Watch outDo not celebrate the decline as 'air is clean'; it is only less dirty.

What is India’s actual average temperature, not just the change?

Anomalies measure the change, but they do not tell you how hot it really is. The ERA5 dataset gives the land-only average temperature in degrees Celsius. In 1940, the average was 22.96°C. In 2024, it was 24.46°C. That is a rise of around 1.5°C, consistent with the anomaly shift, but expressed in absolute terms. Twenty-four degrees might sound pleasant, but this is an average across the whole country, from the Himalayas to the Thar Desert, and across all seasons. The figure hides the killing heat of May and June, just as it hides the frozen peaks. It is a single number that helps measure the overall system, not the local experience.

Chart 6

The local heat the national average hides: very hot days

Open-Meteo ERA5 · days per year at or above 35°C

days
87.0

2025 · latest point

0.050.01001502001940196019802000202087.02.040.021.00.0
DelhiMumbaiKolkataChennaiBengaluru

The number of days reaching 35°C or more has fallen in most cities, with Delhi dropping from 144 to 87 days.

This multi-line chart tracks days per year with maximum temperature ≥35°C for five cities. Delhi, which had 144 such days in 1940, saw 87 in 2025. Chennai dropped from 28 to 21. Mumbai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru have very few. The declines may reflect local aerosol pollution masking warming, changes in wind, or other factors. This threshold alone does not capture heat stress, because humidity and night-time temperatures have risen, as the next chart shows.

How to readEach line is a city; most show a decline.

Watch outDo not conclude that heat risk is decreasing; the danger has shifted from daytime heat to humid heat and warm nights.

Where is India’s temperature headed by 2100?

Climate models project a range of futures depending on how much the world emits. The middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2-4.5) takes India’s average from 24.67°C in 2015 to 26.64°C by 2100, a further rise of about 2°C. Under high emissions, it reaches 29.25°C. Even in the low-emissions vision, it climbs to 25.66°C. These are national averages. The extra 2°C to 5°C on the average means far more scorching days and nights in the cities where most Indians will live. The path is not fixed; it depends on the world’s collective choices, but the direction is clear.

Chart 7

Where India's heat is headed, to 2100

World Bank CCKP · CMIP6 · observed and projected average temperature

°C
24.6

2014 · latest point

22.024.026.028.030.0195020002050210024.625.726.629.3
ObservedLow emissionsMiddle roadHigh emissions

Under a middle-emissions scenario, India’s average temperature could reach 26.64°C by 2100, a further 2°C rise.

This multi-line chart shows observed temperatures from 1950 to 2014, then projections under three scenarios. The low-emissions path (SSP1-2.6) keeps the rise to about 1°C from 2015 levels. The high-emissions path (SSP5-8.5) pushes it to 29.25°C, almost 4.6°C above today. The middle path (SSP2-4.5) is the most likely current trajectory. All scenarios show clear warming, but the difference between them is stark: the future is not fixed.

How to readFollow the historical line then pick a future line; the y-axis is degrees Celsius.

Watch outDo not treat the highest scenario as a prediction; it is a 'what if' based on very high emissions.

Why does humidity make the heat more dangerous?

A hot day is worse when the air is thick with moisture, because the body cannot cool itself through sweat. India’s average relative humidity, computed from ERA5 reanalysis, has risen from 51.5% in 1940 to 64.2% in 2024. That is a significant shift for a national mean over a tropical landmass. It means the same 24°C average now feels heavier and more uncomfortable. In coastal cities, where humidity is naturally high, a seemingly moderate temperature can become lethal during a heatwave. Heat and humidity together is the real threat.

Chart 8

It is not just the heat, it is the humidity

Copernicus ERA5 · derived:t2m+d2m

%
64.2

2024 · latest point

45.050.055.060.065.070.019502000

India’s average relative humidity rose from 51.5% in 1940 to 64.2% in 2024.

Relative humidity measures how much moisture the air holds compared to its maximum at that temperature. A rise of 12 percentage points is significant for a country-wide annual average. This upward trend means that even a day with the same temperature will feel heavier and more oppressive. In coastal cities like Mumbai and Chennai, humidity is the key to heat stress: a 35°C day with 80% humidity can be more dangerous than a 45°C dry day because the body cannot cool itself.

How to readLook at the long-term upward trend; the y-axis is relative humidity in percent.

Watch outDo not read this as daily humidity; it is an annual average that smooths seasonal swings.

Is India’s rainfall becoming more erratic?

The annual precipitation total does not show a simple up or down trend. It swings. In 1940, the average was 1,211.8 mm. By 2025, it reached 1,404.4 mm. But look at the years in between: 1,110 mm in 2018, then 1,374.7 mm in 2019, then 1,315.4 mm in 2020. The monsoon is the beating heart of India’s farms and water supply, and the rainfall is growing noisier. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, so when it rains, it often pours harder, even if the annual total looks similar. What matters for a kharif crop is not the year-end sum but the timing and intensity of the rainfall within the season. This chart shows the annual total to reveal that even the big-picture number is unsteady.

Chart 9

How India's rainfall is swinging

Our World in Data · Annual precipitation

mm
1.4k

2025 · latest point

8001.0k1.2k1.4k1.6k19401960198020002020

Annual precipitation has increased from about 1,212 mm in 1940 to 1,404 mm in 2025, but with huge year-to-year swings.

This line chart shows total annual precipitation in millimetres. The long-term trend is slightly upward, but the year-to-year variability is the real story. 2018 saw just 1,110 mm, while 2019 jumped to 1,375 mm. Such swings make farming and water management extremely difficult. The monsoon is not just about the total; the distribution of rain within the season matters just as much, and this chart shows that even the annual total is unsteady.

How to readNote the ups and downs; the trend line is secondary.

Watch outDo not interpret a rising trend as 'more water'; irregular timing can mean floods and droughts in the same year.

What is the air quality like in India’s big cities right now?

A live snapshot from the World Air Quality Index project: Mumbai’s AQI is 156 (unhealthy), Delhi’s is 95 (moderate), Chennai 73, Kolkata 65, Bengaluru 58. These numbers change hour by hour, but they capture a typical picture. The dominant pollutant is PM2.5, fine particles that enter the lungs and bloodstream. The same combustion that pumps out CO₂ also releases these particles. So the climate story and the air-quality story share a common root.

Chart 10

What the air feels like across India today

WAQI · live air quality index · latest reading

AQI
Delhi
95.0
Mumbai
156
Kolkata
65.0
Chennai
73.0
Bengaluru
58.0

The live AQI ranges from 58 in Bengaluru (moderate) to 156 in Mumbai (unhealthy).

This comparison chart shows the latest Air Quality Index readings for five Indian cities. Mumbai’s AQI of 156 falls in the 'unhealthy' category; Delhi’s 95 and Chennai’s 73 are 'moderate'; Kolkata’s 65 is 'moderate'; Bengaluru’s 58 is 'moderate'. The dominant pollutant in all these readings is PM2.5. These numbers are snapshots from a single day and will change, but they represent a typical pattern. The same fossil fuel burning that drives climate change also emits these fine particles.

How to readEach bar represents one city; the colour and height indicate the severity.

Watch outDo not compare these numbers to annual averages; they are live readings.

How has air pollution changed over the years?

The World Bank’s estimate of mean annual PM2.5 exposure for India was 62 µg/m³ in 1990. It fell to 48.4 µg/m³ by 2020. That is a drop, but 48 µg/m³ is still more than nine times the WHO guideline of 5 µg/m³. So the air has become marginally cleaner on average, likely due to cooking fuel transitions and some emission controls, but it remains dangerously polluted for millions. The long-term trend adds critical context to the daily AQI snapshot.

Chart 11

Days that feel dangerously hot, to 2100

World Bank CCKP · CMIP6 · days with a heat index of 39°C or higher

days
13.9

2014 · latest point

0.050.0100150195020002050210013.932.057.4133
ObservedLow emissionsMiddle roadHigh emissions

Dry heat is survivable; humid heat is what kills, and the heat index counts the days the air actually feels dangerous, body and all.

Days per year when the heat index, which combines temperature and humidity, reaches 39°C or more. About 5 such days in 1950, 14 by 2014, and tens to dozens more by 2100 depending on emissions.

How to readDays per year when the heat index, which combines temperature and humidity, reaches 39°C or more. About 5 such days in 1950, 14 by 2014, and tens to dozens more by 2100 depending on emissions.

Watch outThis is a national average; coastal and Gangetic-plain humidity makes the lived danger far higher in places. Projections widen by scenario, so the high-emissions path is a choice, not a certainty.

Which cities are seeing more extremely hot days?

The national average temperature rise does not translate into more extremely hot days in every city. Delhi’s count of days at or above 35°C fell from 144 in 1940 to 87 in 2025. Chennai’s dropped from 28 to 21. Mumbai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru rarely cross 35°C. But this single threshold does not capture the full danger, as the next chart explains.

Chart 12

The warming is not spread evenly: which states heated most

Copernicus ERA5 · by state

°C warmer
+0.2°C+1.8°C°C warmer
Warmed mostLadakh+1.8°CSikkim+1.6°CHimachal Pradesh+1.5°C
Warmed leastDelhi+0.2°CPunjab+0.4°CHaryana+0.4°C

A single national number hides the map, and India's warming is sharply uneven, fastest where it is least expected.

Each state is shaded by how much its average temperature rose, comparing 2015-2024 against the 1951-1980 baseline. Darker means more warming.

How to readEach state is shaded by how much its average temperature rose, comparing 2015-2024 against the 1951-1980 baseline. Darker means more warming.

Watch outThe Himalayan states (Ladakh, Sikkim, Himachal) have warmed most, a known mountain-amplification effect, while the warming felt by the most people is in the dense plains. State averages still smooth over local extremes.

Are nights staying hot as well?

Yes, warm nights are climbing. In Chennai, the number of warm nights has shot up from 22 in 1940 to 99 in 2025. Mumbai rose from 2 to 14. Delhi saw a decline from 49 to 37, but the data for northwestern cities can be noisy. Hot nights are a hidden killer: without a cool night, the body cannot recover, and the risk of heatstroke multiplies. The rise in humid nights, especially in coastal cities, is one of the clearest climate signals in India’s urban data.

Chart 13

And the nights are not cooling down

Open-Meteo ERA5 · warm nights per year

nights
37.0

2025 · latest point

0.050.01001501950200037.014.037.099.00.0
DelhiMumbaiKolkataChennaiBengaluru

Chennai’s warm nights surged from 22 in 1940 to 99 in 2025; Mumbai’s rose from 2 to 14.

This multi-line chart shows how many nights per year stay above a comfort threshold. Chennai shows a dramatic rise of 77 additional uncomfortably warm nights. Mumbai’s number has also risen sharply. Delhi’s count is more variable but trendless. Warm nights prevent the body from recovering from daytime heat, making heatwaves far more deadly. The rise in coastal cities, where humidity is high, is particularly worrying.

How to readLook for the upward trend, especially in Chennai; note that Delhi’s line is flatter.

Watch outDo not interpret Delhi’s flat trend as good news; local data can be noisy, and heat stress is rising elsewhere.

How much is the sea rising along India’s coasts?

Tide gauges in Mumbai since 1878 and Chennai since 1916 show a steady upward march. At Mumbai, sea level has gone from –40 mm relative to the 1961–1990 average to +192 mm in 2024, a rise of 232 mm over 146 years. At Chennai, the rise is even steeper: from 2.5 mm in 1916 to 317.5 mm in 2022. These are not projections; they are instrument readings. A rising sea means more frequent coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and higher storm surges during cyclones.

Chart 14

The sea is rising on India's coasts

PSMSL tide gauges · annual mean sea level

mm vs 1961-1990
192

2024 · latest point

-1000.0100200300400190019502000192318
MumbaiChennai

Mumbai sea level rose 232 mm from 1878 to 2024; Chennai rose 315 mm from 1916 to 2022.

These two line charts show annual mean sea level from tide gauges. Mumbai’s record runs from 1878, Chennai’s from 1916. Both show a clear upward trend. The rise is not constant; there are small year-to-year variations, but the long-term direction is unmistakable. A sea that was 192 mm higher in 2024 means storm surges reach further inland, and low-lying areas like Mumbai’s reclaimed land and Chennai’s coast are more frequently flooded.

How to readEach chart is a time series; the y-axis is mm relative to 1961-1990.

Watch outDo not assume the rate is constant; it appears to be accelerating in recent decades.

How many lives do climate-linked disasters claim?

The disaster deaths dataset, compiled by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, shows floods as the dominant killer in recent years. In 2025, floods took 405 lives, landslides 154, and storms 158, totalling 717. In 2024, extreme temperature deaths spiked to 733 alongside 285 flood and 388 landslide deaths. The numbers bounce around; a single large cyclone or heatwave can cause a spike. The long-term story is that floods and storms are the recurring threat, and as rainfall becomes heavier and seas rise, the odds of a deadly event tilt upward.

Chart 15

The human toll of climate-linked disasters

EM-DAT · recorded deaths by disaster type · since 1990

deaths
405

2025 · latest point

0.05.0k10.0k15.0k1990200020102020405158733
FloodsStorms & cyclonesExtreme heat/cold

In 2025, floods, landslides, and storms caused 717 deaths; extreme temperatures killed 733 in 2024.

This chart stacks deaths by disaster type annually. Floods are the most consistent killer, with landslides and storms also significant. Extreme temperature deaths are more variable; 2024 was particularly bad. The numbers do not show a clear trend, highlighting that disaster mortality depends on many factors, including warning systems and shelter. But the underlying climate risks, heavier rain, hotter extremes, rising seas, are loading the dice.

How to readThe bars are stacked by disaster type; the total height is the total deaths.

Watch outDo not read a single year as a trend; disaster deaths are highly variable.

How much CO2 does India now emit?

India released 3.19 billion tonnes of CO₂ from fossil fuels and industry in 2024. That is a thousand times higher than the 3,94,481 tonnes emitted in 1858, the first year in the record. The climb has been steep since the 1990s as the economy grew. But total CO₂ tells only one side, because India also emits other warming gases.

Chart 16

How much CO2 India now emits each year

Our World in Data · Annual CO₂ emissions

tonnes
3.2B

2024 · latest point

0.01B2B3B4B190019502000

Annual CO₂ emissions reached 3.19 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 3.9 lakh tonnes in 1858.

This line chart shows the exponential rise in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry. The curve bends upward sharply after 1970 and steepens after 2000. The increase in just the last decade, from 2.23 billion tonnes in 2015 to 3.19 billion in 2024, matches the rise of coal-fired power and industry. This is the production-based measure, meaning it counts what is emitted on Indian territory.

How to readThe y-axis is in tonnes; note the log-like shape of the line.

Watch outDo not confuse annual emissions with cumulative or per capita emissions.

Is CO2 the whole story, or are other gases also rising?

Greenhouse gases include methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), not just CO₂. In 2024, India’s emissions included 3.09 billion tonnes of CO₂, 859 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent from methane, and 310 million from nitrous oxide. Methane comes largely from agriculture and waste. So the total greenhouse gas footprint was 4.26 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent. CO₂ is the largest piece, but methane is a quarter of the warming effect. Ignoring it misses a chunk of the problem.

Chart 17

Total emissions: big, but in proportion

World Bank · latest common year 2024

tonnes
World
38.6B
US
4.9B
EU
2.4B
China
12.3B
Brazil
483.0M
Indonesia
812.2M
India
3.2B

India’s 3.19 billion tonnes ranks third globally, behind China and the US.

This bar chart shows absolute CO₂ emissions in 2024. China’s bar is the tallest; India’s is less than a third of that. The US and EU follow. India’s total emissions are large, but the country’s population is also large. When you see India third, remember that per person it is much lower.

How to readCompare the absolute sizes; India is significant but not the biggest.

Watch outDo not read 'third largest' as the whole story; per capita and historical are equally important.

Which sectors produce India’s greenhouse gases?

In 2023, the largest emitting sector was electricity and heat, at 1.55 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent. Agriculture followed with 808 million tonnes, then manufacturing and construction at 675 million, transport at 362 million, buildings at 240 million, and industry at 221 million. The pattern is different from rich countries: agriculture is the second-largest source, reflecting the large rural population and livestock. Land-use change and forestry actually subtracted 146 million tonnes, acting as a sink. This mix shapes which solutions can work.

Chart 18

Why India is so exposed: who works the land

World Bank · SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS

% of total employment
41.6

2025 · latest point

40.050.060.070.020002020

41.6% of India’s workforce was still in agriculture in 2025, down from 63.1% in 1991.

This line chart shows the share of total employment in agriculture. The long-term decline is steady but slow. In 2025, over two in five workers still depend on farming, forestry, or fishing. These jobs are directly exposed to heat, rainfall variability, and soil moisture changes. A bad monsoon year does not just mean higher food prices; it means millions of households lose income.

How to readDownward is good, but note the current value is still high.

Watch outDo not think a lower share means fewer farmers; absolute numbers may still be high.

Is India’s economic growth becoming less polluting?

Yes, the economy is growing slightly faster than emissions. In 1990, India produced $1.91 trillion in GDP (constant 2015 US$) and emitted 578 million tonnes of CO₂. By 2024, GDP reached $14.25 trillion and CO₂ emissions were 3.19 billion. That means the economy grew about 7.5 times while emissions grew 5.5 times. The carbon intensity of the economy, emissions per dollar of output, has fallen. So there is a relative decoupling, but not an absolute one yet. Emissions are still rising, just not as fast as GDP.

Chart 19

Is India's growth pulling away from its emissions?

indexed · first year = 100

index (first yr = 100)
748

2024 · latest point

0.020040060080020002020748553
GDPCO₂ emissions

GDP grew 7.5x and CO₂ emissions 5.5x from 1990 to 2024, indicating relative decoupling.

This chart indexes both GDP and CO₂ emissions to a common start year. The two lines rise together but diverge slightly. GDP outpaces emissions, meaning the carbon intensity of the economy (CO₂ per rupee of GDP) is falling. This is progress, but it is not absolute decoupling: emissions are still rising, just more slowly than output. The dream is for emissions to peak and decline while GDP grows, that has not happened yet.

How to readTwo indexed lines starting at 100; the gap between them widening is a good sign.

Watch outDo not misinterpret 'relative decoupling' as 'emissions are falling'; they are still rising.

Is each unit of electricity getting cleaner?

The carbon intensity of India’s electricity, grams of CO₂ emitted per kilowatt-hour generated, has fallen from 740 in 2000 to 670 in 2025. That is a 9% drop over 25 years, driven by more renewables and improved coal plant efficiency. However, 670 g/kWh is still a fairly high number globally. The direction is right, but the pace needs to quicken if electricity is to stop driving up total emissions.

Chart 20

Is India's electricity getting cleaner?

Ember · emissions_intensity_gco2_per_kwh

gCO2/kWh
670

2025 · latest point

66068070072074076020002020

Carbon intensity fell from 740 gCO₂/kWh in 2000 to 670 in 2025, a 9% drop.

This line chart shows the grams of CO₂ emitted per unit of electricity generated each year. The long, slow decline reflects the growing share of renewables and nuclear, along with more efficient coal plants. However, the drop is modest, just 70 grams in 25 years. To meet climate goals, this number needs to fall much faster. The good news is that the recent acceleration in solar and wind capacity suggests the curve may steepen.

How to readDownward is good; the pace of decline is what matters.

Watch outDo not assume that a falling carbon intensity means total emissions are falling; if electricity demand grows fast, total emissions can still rise.

How is India generating its electricity?

In 2025, coal provided 70.8% of total generation (1,474 TWh out of 2,082 TWh). Clean sources, solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, bioenergy, together supplied 26.7%. Solar alone generated 97 TWh, wind 74 TWh, hydro 178 TWh. Coal still rules, but the clean share has expanded from single digits two decades ago. The transition is visible in the lines: solar is the fastest-growing source, but demand is growing so quickly that even large clean additions have not shrunk coal’s share much.

Chart 21

But coal still rules the grid

Ember · Coal as a share of electricity generation

% of generation
70.8

2025 · latest point

65.070.075.080.020002020

Coal’s share of total generation was 70.8% in 2025, while the clean share was 26.7%.

This share chart shows that despite the surge in renewables, coal still provides over two-thirds of India’s electricity. The clean share has grown from a few percent two decades ago, but it has not yet eaten into coal’s absolute dominance. The reason is simple: total electricity demand doubled in the last decade, and coal met most of that growth.

How to readThe pie or stacked bar is mostly one colour: that colour is coal.

Watch outDo not read the clean share as a failure; it’s growing fast but from a small base.

How fast are solar and wind capacity growing?

Solar installed capacity jumped from a negligible 1.1 megawatts in 2000 to 97,384 megawatts (97.4 GW) in 2024. Wind rose from 941 MW to 48,163 MW over the same period. Total renewable capacity reached 204 GW. This is one of the world’s fastest energy build-outs, and it has happened mostly in the last ten years. Capacity is not generation, the sun does not always shine, but it shows the foundation being laid.

Chart 22

The clean-energy surge: capacity from near zero

EIA · installed electricity capacity

GW
97.4

2024 · latest point

0.01002003001980199020002010202097.448.2204
SolarWindAll renewables

Solar capacity reached 97.4 GW in 2024, up from nearly zero in 2000; total renewables hit 204 GW.

This multi-line chart shows installed capacity for solar, wind, and all renewables. Solar’s line is almost vertical after 2015. Wind shows steady growth. These numbers represent the maximum possible generation if all plants ran at full tilt. Actual generation is lower because the sun doesn’t always shine, but capacity is the hardware. India’s solar build-out is one of the fastest in the world.

How to readThe lines rise steeply, especially after 2015; the y-axis is in gigawatts.

Watch outDo not confuse installed capacity with actual electricity generation; they are different.

Does coal still dominate?

Yes. As a share of generation, coal stood at 70.8% in 2025. The clean share, including hydro and nuclear, reached 26.7%. The headline “clean energy surge” is true in absolute terms, but the grid still runs on coal. The tension between rising demand and the need to displace fossil fuels is the central energy challenge.

Chart 23

How India makes its electricity, and how it is shifting

Ember · electricity generation

TWh
1.5k

2025 · latest point

0.05001.0k1.5k2.0k2000201020201.5k19610417848.553.8
CoalSolarWindHydroGasNuclear

Coal still generated 70.8% of electricity in 2025, but solar and wind are growing rapidly.

This chart plots generation by source over time. Coal’s line dwarfs all others, but solar’s line has surged from near zero in 2010 to 97 TWh in 2025. Wind and hydro are also significant. The clean share reached 26.7%. The challenge is that total demand is growing so fast that even large clean additions have only managed to slow the growth of coal, not reduce it in absolute terms.

How to readLook at the different coloured lines; solar’s steep rise is the key story.

Watch outDo not look only at percentage shares; absolute generation of coal continues to rise.

How do India’s per-person emissions compare?

In 2024, an average Indian emitted 2.2 tonnes of CO₂. A Chinese person emitted 8.7 tonnes. An American emitted 14.2 tonnes. The world average was 4.7 tonnes, and the European Union was at 5.4 tonnes. India’s per capita figure is among the lowest of large economies. This is the fairness number: climate change is a global problem, but Indians have contributed far less per person to the cause.

Chart 24

Per-person emissions, four very different paths

Our World in Data

tonnes per person
2.2

2024 · latest point

0.010.020.030.01800190020002.28.714.25.42.32.9
IndiaChinaUSEUBrazilIndonesia

India’s per capita emissions have only recently crossed 2 tonnes, while the US has stayed above 10 tonnes since 1900.

This line chart traces per capita emissions from 1750 to today for India, China, the US, and the world. India’s line is a flat line near zero until the 1970s, then a slow incline. China’s rises sharply after 2000. The US line has been high for over a century. This long view reveals that today’s gap is not new; it is rooted in different industrial paths.

How to readEach country is a differently coloured line; the y-axis is tonnes per person.

Watch outDo not compare a single year in isolation; the shape of the curves matters.

How do India’s total emissions stack up globally?

India’s 3.19 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2024 placed it third behind China (12.29 billion) and the United States (4.9 billion), and ahead of the EU (2.43 billion). So India is a significant emitter in absolute terms, but it is home to about 18% of the world’s population, so its share of global emissions (8.3%) is still lower than its population share.

Chart 25

India's slice of the world's emissions

Our World in Data · annual-co2-emissions-per-country

%
8.3

2024 · latest point

0.02.04.06.08.010.0190019502000

India’s share of global CO₂ rose from 0.1% in 1858 to 8.3% in 2024.

This single-series line chart shows India’s share of world total CO₂. It was negligible until the 1980s, then began a slow climb. The acceleration after 2000 reflects India’s rapid economic growth and coal expansion. 8.3% is significant, but India’s population share is about 18%, so the emissions share is still lower than the population share.

How to readThe line rises; the important number is where it ends.

Watch outDo not think 'only 8%', that is a large slice of a shrinking global budget.

Who is responsible for the CO2 already in the air?

Cumulative emissions since 1750 are the real measure of historical responsibility. The United States has emitted 435 billion tonnes, China 285 billion, the EU 301 billion. India’s cumulative total is 66 billion tonnes. The atmosphere cares about the stock, not the flow. The big numbers from the early industrialisers are the ones still trapping heat.

Chart 26

Where India's emissions actually come from

Our World in Data · 2023

tonnes CO₂e
Electricity & heat
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Electricity & heat
1.6B
Agriculture
808.7M
Manufacturing
675.6M
Transport
362.9M
Buildings
240.3M
Industry
221.1M
Fugitive
95.4M
Waste
94.5M
Other fuel
69.3M

Electricity and heat are the largest emitting sector at 1.55 billion tonnes CO₂e, followed by agriculture at 809 million.

This stacked chart allocates total greenhouse gases to sectors. Electricity and heat dominate because of coal. Agriculture is next, reflecting India’s large rural workforce. Manufacturing, transport, and buildings follow. The land-use category is negative, meaning India’s forests and land are net absorbers of CO₂. This sectoral pattern tells a story different from rich countries: industrial emissions are still growing, but farm emissions are already large and hard to reduce.

How to readThe size of each section shows its contribution; the trend over time matters too.

Watch outDo not assume that reducing electricity emissions alone will solve the problem; agriculture and industry matter hugely.

How have per-person emissions grown over time?

A comparison of trajectories since 1750 shows that India’s per capita emissions were near zero until the mid-20th century and have only recently crossed 2 tonnes. The US and UK, by contrast, were emitting over 10 tonnes per person by the early 1900s. China’s rose in the 2000s. The chart makes clear that India’s emissions growth is recent, and its per person figure is still below the world average.

Chart 27

...but how much per person, next to others?

World Bank · latest common year 2024

tonnes per person
World
4.7
US
14.2
EU
5.4
China
8.7
Brazil
2.3
Indonesia
2.9
India
2.2

India’s 2.2 tonnes per person is well below China’s 8.7, the US’s 14.2, and the world average of 4.7.

This bar chart compares per capita CO₂ emissions across countries in 2024. India’s bar is the shortest among the large economies shown. The US bar is over six times longer. This visual makes the case for fairness: while India’s total emissions are large because of its population, the average Indian is a tiny emitter. The chart does not show other low-income countries, which are even lower.

How to readCompare the bar lengths; India’s is clearly the smallest among the big four.

Watch outDo not use this to excuse India’s total emissions; the problem is global, but responsibility differs.

How much of the world’s CO2 does India emit?

India’s share of global CO₂ emissions was 0.1% in 1858. It reached 8.3% in 2024. That is a steep climb in the last two decades, driven by coal-powered growth. But it is still well below India’s share of the global population. The world’s carbon budget is limited, so this share will be watched closely.

Chart 28

...and who actually filled the atmosphere?

World Bank · latest common year 2024

tonnes
World
1,849.1B
US
434.9B
EU
300.9B
China
285.1B
Brazil
18.2B
Indonesia
17.4B
India
66.1B

The US has emitted 435 billion tonnes of CO₂ cumulatively; India, 66 billion.

This bar chart shows cumulative CO₂ since 1750. The US bar is the longest, followed by the EU and China. India’s cumulative total is one-sixth that of the US. This measure is the honest accounting of historical responsibility: the CO₂ that is warming the planet now was emitted over the past 150 years, mostly by today’s rich countries.

How to readThe total length of each bar represents centuries of emissions; India’s is relatively short.

Watch outDo not forget that this is cumulative, not annual.

Why is India so vulnerable: how many still farm?

In 1991, 63.1% of India’s workforce was in agriculture; by 2025, that share had fallen to 41.6%. That is still over 40% of workers depending on the sky for their income. A failed monsoon, an unseasonal downpour, or a blistering spring heatwave can wipe out a year’s livelihood. The shift away from farming is slow, and while it continues, a huge number of people remain directly exposed to climate swings.

Chart 29

...and a soaring demand for cooling

World Bank CCKP · CMIP6 · cooling degree days (base 18°C)

degree-days
5.0k

2014 · latest point

4.0k5.0k6.0k7.0k8.0k19502000205021005.0k5.6k6.1k7.7k
ObservedLow emissionsMiddle roadHigh emissions

Heat is not just a health threat, it is an energy and money problem: more heat means more cooling, more power, more strain on the grid.

Cooling degree days measure how much, and how long, temperatures sit above a comfort baseline, the standard proxy for cooling and air-conditioning demand. The line climbs steeply under higher emissions.

How to readCooling degree days measure how much, and how long, temperatures sit above a comfort baseline, the standard proxy for cooling and air-conditioning demand. The line climbs steeply under higher emissions.

Watch outThis is potential cooling demand from temperature alone; how much actual electricity it draws depends on who can afford air-conditioning, which is its own inequality.

How many people will live through this hotter century?

India’s population has grown from 43.6 crore in 1960 to 145.1 crore in 2024. More people means more bodies to shield from heat, more mouths to feed from an uncertain harvest, and more homes in the path of storms and floods. The scale of exposure, measured in plain human numbers, is what makes every fraction of a degree of warming matter for India.

---

The data shows a country already living with a changed climate: hotter, more humid, with wilder rain and rising seas. It also shows a country that is still a small part of the cause, per person and historically, but whose emissions are growing fast. The hardest truth is the number of people, 145 crore and counting, who face these shifts with livelihoods tied to the land. The numbers do not predict the future; they show what is already happening and what will likely get worse without a sharp turn in the world’s energy use.

Chart 30

A century of warming, one stripe per year

Our World in Data

°C vs 1991-2020
19401952196419761988200020122025
Cooler (-1.6)Hotter (0.7)19402025

The climate stripes show an unmistakable shift from blue to deep red, with the last two decades almost entirely red.

Each vertical stripe represents one year’s average temperature anomaly, coloured from dark blue (cool) through white (normal) to dark red (warm). The first half of the record is a mix of blues and whites. The reds appear occasionally in the 1980s and then dominate from the 1990s onward. The deepest reds correspond to the warmest years, like 2016 and 2024. No numbers are shown, just the colour pattern, making the trend instantly visible to anyone.

How to readSee the left-to-right colour shift from blue to red; the deeper and more frequent the red, the warmer it was.

Watch outDo not think a single blue stripe in recent years means cooling; natural variability still exists.

More from the data

CO2 is not the whole story: the gas mix

Our World in Data

tonnes CO₂e
3.1B

2024 · latest point

0.01B2B3B4B18501900195020003.1B859.3M310.0M
Carbon dioxideMethaneNitrous oxide

India’s total greenhouse gases in 2024 were 4.26 billion tonnes CO₂-equivalent, with methane making up 20%.

This column chart breaks down emissions into CO₂ (3.09 billion tonnes), methane (859 million tonnes CO₂e), and nitrous oxide (310 million tonnes CO₂e). Methane is a much more potent but shorter-lived greenhouse gas than CO₂, and it comes mainly from agriculture (rice paddies and livestock) and waste. Nitrous oxide also arises from fertilizer use. This mix is important because reducing non-CO₂ gases can yield fast reductions in warming.

How to readThe stacked columns show the three gases; CO₂ dominates but the other two are substantial.

Watch outDo not measure only CO₂ and think you have the full climate impact.

...and how many people face the hotter century

World Bank · SP.POP.TOTL

people
145.1 cr

2024 · latest point

0.050 cr100 cr150 cr2000

India’s population reached 145.1 crore in 2024, up from 43.6 crore in 1960.

This line chart shows the rapid population growth over six decades. The steepest part of the curve was between 1970 and 2010. The number of people now, nearly 1.5 billion, means that the exposure to climate impacts is enormous. More people in vulnerable coastal cities, more demand for water and food, and more bodies physiologically stressed by heat.

How to readThe line rises; the number at the end is the key figure.

Watch outDo not assume this is a projection; it is historical through 2024.