Climate

Is India's 2026 monsoon in trouble?

IMD's June forecast gives a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon, driven by El Niño. But history shows El Niño loads the dice, not the outcome. The season is young.

By Updated June 2026

Plain English first

Every spring the India Meteorological Department puts a number on the coming monsoon, and in 2026 that number is below normal: rainfall of about 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% chance the season ends outright deficient.

The reason is El Nino (a warming of the Pacific that tends to weaken the winds pulling the June-September rains inland), which forecasters expect to develop during the season. But a June forecast is a probability, not a verdict. The monsoon delivers about 70% of India's annual rain over four months, and the season has barely begun: it arrived late over Kerala, paused, and will not be settled until October. The honest question is not 'how bad is 2026' but 'what do the forecast and the historical record actually tell us right now'.

  1. 01Myth

    Myth: A below-normal forecast means a drought is coming.

    Reality: No. IMD calls a monsoon normal within about 10% of the long-period average; 90% of LPA is below normal but not a drought, and the forecast carries a model error of several points. The record is full of years that beat or missed their spring forecast.

  2. 02Myth

    Myth: El Nino guarantees a failed monsoon.

    Reality: No. It roughly doubles the odds of a weak monsoon, but many El Nino years still finished near or above normal, especially when the Indian Ocean leaned India's way. In 2026 that second ocean is forecast neutral, so the usual rescue is uncertain, not absent.

Chart

IMD's 2026 monsoon forecast: the odds tilt to a shortfall

IMD puts the chance of a deficient monsoon at 60%, with only a 16% probability of normal or wetter rains.

IMD updated Long Range Forecast probabilities for the season as a whole · issued 29 May 2026

% forecast probability
Deficient (below 90% of normal) 60%Below normal (90-96%) 24%16%Normal or above (over 96%)60%24%16%Deficient (below 90% of normal)Below normal (90-96%)Normal or above (over 96%)
About this chart

The three horizontal bars show the forecast probabilities for each category of the 2026 monsoon. The longest bar, at 60%, represents the chance that the season will be deficient (rainfall below 90% of the long-period average). Another 24% goes to below-normal (90-96% of LPA). Together, that's an 84% chance of a below-par monsoon. The slim 16% for normal or above tells you that a good monsoon is unlikely. This is a summary of IMD's official prediction, based on ocean temperatures and atmospheric models. It doesn't mean 60% of the country will get a drought; it means the whole-season total has a 60% chance of landing in the deficient zone. The forecast itself has an error margin of about 4-5% of LPA, so these numbers are the best early signal, not a precise verdict.

Why this chart This is the chart that directly answers the question most people ask: 'What are the odds?'

How to read it The length of each bar tells you the probability—longer bar means higher chance. Compare the 60% deficient bar to the 16% normal bar.

Watch out Don't think 60% deficient means 60% of the season will be dry; it's the probability that the entire season will be classified as deficient.

In this article 9 sections
  1. What are the odds of a deficient monsoon in 2026?
  2. Has the forecast moved, and does it mean it is getting worse?
  3. But hasn't the monsoon always been unpredictable? A 125-year view
  4. Does El Niño really ruin India's monsoon? The odds, counted.
  5. But haven't some El Niño years still brought good rains?
  6. Can the Indian Ocean save us? The dipole gamble.
  7. Will a weak monsoon make food prices shoot up?
  8. If agriculture is only 14% of the economy, why worry?
  9. How to read these numbers

What are the odds of a deficient monsoon in 2026?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its updated monsoon forecast on 29 May 2026. The headline is stark: it gives a 60% probability that this year's southwest monsoon will be deficient, meaning total rainfall finishes below 90% of the (LPA). A further 24% probability is assigned to a below-normal season (90–96% of LPA). The chance of a normal or surplus monsoon (above 96% of LPA) is just 16%. In other words, the odds tilt roughly 5-to-1 against a healthy monsoon.

The LPA is the average rainfall over the 1971–2020 period, about 87 cm across India. IMD defines a season as normal when rainfall is within 10% of that average, below normal when it falls 10–4% short, and deficient when the shortfall exceeds 10%. So a 90% LPA is right on the boundary between below normal and deficient. The forecast average of roughly 90% means the season is expected to be just inside the below-normal band, but the probability of slipping into deficient territory is high.

This is a forecast, not a measurement. The model carries an error of about 4–5% of LPA, and the actual outcome will not be known until October. Early June saw a late onset over Kerala and a weak start, but June is historically the most variable month and tells us little about the full four-month season. For now, the numbers signal elevated risk, not a finished story.

Has the forecast moved, and does it mean it is getting worse?

IMD's first-stage forecast in April 2026 had pointed to about 92% of the LPA. By the end of May, as the El Niño signal in the Pacific strengthened, the updated forecast nudged down to about 90%. That two-percentage-point drop may sound small, but it sits well inside the model's typical uncertainty band of 4–5% of LPA. For a monsoon forecast, the direction of change matters more than the precise decimal.

A downward revision in May often reflects a firmed-up El Niño outlook, which historically depresses monsoon performance. The shift from 92% to 90% is a signal that the odds of a deficit have increased, not that the monsoon has suddenly weakened by a specific amount. Think of it like a weather app moving the chance of rain from 80% to 85%, the precise tick is less important than the higher confidence that it might pour.

Chart

IMD nudged its 2026 forecast down as El Nino firmed up

The forecast slipped from 92% to 90% of the long-period average, a small shift within the model's error but a sign of growing El Niño risk.

IMD seasonal forecast as % of the long-period average · April vs May 2026

% of long-period average
% of long-period averageInitial forecast (13 Apr 2026)92%Updated forecast (29 May 2026)90%% of long-period averageInitial forecast (13 Apr 2026)92%Updated forecast (29 May 2026)90%
About this chart

Two bars compare IMD's initial April forecast (92% of LPA) with the updated May forecast (90% of LPA). The drop of two percentage points is tiny, especially when you know the model's typical error is 4-5% of LPA. What matters is the direction: downward, as the El Niño conditions in the Pacific solidified. This nudging is a signal that the odds of a shortfall have edged up. It doesn't mean the monsoon suddenly got 2% worse; it means the forecasters' confidence in a deficit rose. Like a cricket pitch report shifting from 'might turn' to 'will turn', the underlying assessment changed.

Why this chart It answers a reader's next question: Is the forecast getting worse? And it teaches that small revisions in a noisy system are about direction, not precision.

How to read it Compare the two bar lengths: the tiny shrinkage from April to May. Focus on the direction of change, not the exact numbers.

Watch out Don't interpret this as a precise 2% worsening; it's well within the forecast's uncertainty, but the downgrade is a meaningful signal.

But hasn't the monsoon always been unpredictable? A 125-year view

If you line up every monsoon season since 1901, you see a long streak of brown, blue, and every shade in between. Years with rainfall below normal appear scattered across the entire 125-year record, not clustered in any one era. The wettest years, like 2025 with a +7.8% departure, and the driest, like 1901 with -13.8%, are part of the same noisy system. The monsoon has no steady long-term trend in the all-India average, it just wobbles.

This historical chaos is a reminder that a below-normal forecast is not a freak event. The monsoon often falls short. A bad year is not a permanent shift. The challenge in 2026 is that a natural wobble may coincide with an El Niño, increasing the odds of a larger deficit. But the historical stripes show that even severe droughts are followed by recoveries, and that the sky has not fallen before.

Chart

But the monsoon has never sat still

Below-normal years are scattered across 125 monsoons; a weak 2026 would be another wobble, not a freak event.

IMD all-India June-September rainfall departure · 1901-2025

% rainfall departure
1901: −13.8%1902: −8.4%1903: +1.5%1904: −12.4%1905: −16.8%1906: +3.1%1907: −10%1908: +5.8%1909: +5%1910: +7.6%1911: −13.8%1912: −5.7%1913: −9.6%1914: +8.9%1915: −9.1%1916: +17.2%1917: +26.6%1918: −13%1919: +10.3%1920: −10.6%1921: +11.8%1922: +9.3%1923: +3.1%1924: +10.8%1925: +2.4%1926: +11.4%1927: +10.4%1928: −0.5%1929: −0.6%1930: −0.9%1931: +9.7%1932: +3.3%1933: +18.6%1934: +11%1935: +5%1936: +12.3%1937: +2%1938: +15%1939: −4%1940: +2.6%1941: −8.1%1942: +16.2%1943: +6.3%1944: +10%1945: +9.5%1946: +12%1947: +12.2%1948: +11.3%1949: +9%1950: +4.2%1951: −13.2%1952: −5.3%1953: +10.7%1954: +5.1%1955: +9.1%1956: +15%1957: −0.5%1958: +14%1959: +20.1%1960: +4.6%1961: +21%1962: +3.9%1963: +4.4%1964: +14.2%1965: −18.6%1966: −8.8%1967: +1.6%1968: −8%1969: +3.8%1970: +15.2%1971: +5.1%1972: −22.3%1973: +6.4%1974: −10.4%1975: +14.9%1976: +1.9%1977: +3.4%1978: +8.2%1979: −16.7%1980: +7.6%1981: +1.9%1982: −11.4%1983: +14%1984: +2.1%1985: −4.4%1986: −8.5%1987: −14.3%1988: +21.2%1989: +2.1%1990: +10.9%1991: −1.4%1992: −1.4%1993: +2%1994: +13.9%1995: +4.3%1996: +3.3%1997: +0.2%1998: +3.1%1999: −2.6%2000: −6.2%2001: −6.7%2002: −20.9%2003: +3.3%2004: −9.6%2005: +0.4%2006: +3.4%2007: +11.3%2008: +3.3%2009: −18.3%2010: +5%2011: +4.9%2012: −3.6%2013: +8.6%2014: −10.1%2015: −12.7%2016: −0.3%2017: −2.6%2018: −7.4%2019: +11.8%2020: +10.5%2021: +0.4%2022: +6.5%2023: −5.3%2024: +7.8%2025: +7.8%1910192019301940195019601970198019902000201020201901: −13.8%1902: −8.4%1903: +1.5%1904: −12.4%1905: −16.8%1906: +3.1%1907: −10%1908: +5.8%1909: +5%1910: +7.6%1911: −13.8%1912: −5.7%1913: −9.6%1914: +8.9%1915: −9.1%1916: +17.2%1917: +26.6%1918: −13%1919: +10.3%1920: −10.6%1921: +11.8%1922: +9.3%1923: +3.1%1924: +10.8%1925: +2.4%1926: +11.4%1927: +10.4%1928: −0.5%1929: −0.6%1930: −0.9%1931: +9.7%1932: +3.3%1933: +18.6%1934: +11%1935: +5%1936: +12.3%1937: +2%1938: +15%1939: −4%1940: +2.6%1941: −8.1%1942: +16.2%1943: +6.3%1944: +10%1945: +9.5%1946: +12%1947: +12.2%1948: +11.3%1949: +9%1950: +4.2%1951: −13.2%1952: −5.3%1953: +10.7%1954: +5.1%1955: +9.1%1956: +15%1957: −0.5%1958: +14%1959: +20.1%1960: +4.6%1961: +21%1962: +3.9%1963: +4.4%1964: +14.2%1965: −18.6%1966: −8.8%1967: +1.6%1968: −8%1969: +3.8%1970: +15.2%1971: +5.1%1972: −22.3%1973: +6.4%1974: −10.4%1975: +14.9%1976: +1.9%1977: +3.4%1978: +8.2%1979: −16.7%1980: +7.6%1981: +1.9%1982: −11.4%1983: +14%1984: +2.1%1985: −4.4%1986: −8.5%1987: −14.3%1988: +21.2%1989: +2.1%1990: +10.9%1991: −1.4%1992: −1.4%1993: +2%1994: +13.9%1995: +4.3%1996: +3.3%1997: +0.2%1998: +3.1%1999: −2.6%2000: −6.2%2001: −6.7%2002: −20.9%2003: +3.3%2004: −9.6%2005: +0.4%2006: +3.4%2007: +11.3%2008: +3.3%2009: −18.3%2010: +5%2011: +4.9%2012: −3.6%2013: +8.6%2014: −10.1%2015: −12.7%2016: −0.3%2017: −2.6%2018: −7.4%2019: +11.8%2020: +10.5%2021: +0.4%2022: +6.5%2023: −5.3%2024: +7.8%2025: +7.8%192019401960198020002020
DrierNormalWetter
About this chart

This chart uses coloured stripes for each year from 1901 to 2025, with green for surplus and ochre for deficit. You can see that wet and dry years are jumbled together. The extremes—like 2025's +7.8% surplus and 1901's -13.8% deficit—are part of the same unpredictable system. There is no long-term rising or falling trend in the all-India average. The monsoon is naturally variable, with below-normal years occurring regularly. What this means for 2026: a deficient season would be a serious disappointment but not an unheard-of catastrophe. The stripes remind us that the rains have always been moody, and that farmers and policymakers have long dealt with such moods. It also cautions against overreacting to a single June forecast: the final outcome may surprise.

Why this chart It provides the essential historical context—the monsoon's personality—before we zoom into the 2026 drivers.

How to read it Each vertical stripe is a year; ochre means rainfall below normal, green means above. The more ochre you see, the more frequent the deficits, but they are scattered.

Watch out Don't look for a clear pattern or trend in the stripes; the monsoon's chaos is the point. A few ochre stripes in a row are normal, not a new normal.

Does El Niño really ruin India's monsoon? The odds, counted.

El Niño is a warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which shifts the tropical rising air eastward and weakens the monsoon's pull over India. Since 1950, 57.7% of El Niño years (15 out of 26) saw the summer monsoon finish below normal, compared with 33.3% in neutral years and just 17.4% in years. The chance of a truly deficient season (more than 10% short) rises to 30.8% under El Niño, versus only 7.4% in neutral conditions. El Niño roughly doubles the risk of a weak monsoon.

But note the remaining gap: even when El Niño is active, about 42% of the time the monsoon still ends up normal or better. The Pacific Ocean is a heavy thumb on the scale, not a dictator. That gap is where other forces, like the Indian Ocean, come in. For a deeper dive into El Niño's history over India, see our companion piece, what El Niño does to India.

Chart

El Nino roughly doubles the odds of a weak monsoon

Under El Niño, 57.7% of monsoons since 1950 fell below normal, compared with 33.3% in neutral years—roughly double the risk.

Share of each Pacific state's years that finished below normal · 1950-2025

% of phase years
% of phase yearsEl Nino: below normal57.7%El Nino: ≤ −5%46.2%El Nino: ≤ −10%30.8%Neutral: below normal33.3%Neutral: ≤ −5%22.2%Neutral: ≤ −10%7.4%La Nina: below normal17.4%La Nina: ≤ −5%8.7%La Nina: ≤ −10%4.3%% of phase yearsEl Nino: below normal57.7%El Nino: ≤ −5%46.2%El Nino: ≤ −10%30.8%Neutral: below normal33.3%Neutral: ≤ −5%22.2%Neutral: ≤ −10%7.4%La Nina: below normal17.4%La Nina: ≤ −5%8.7%La Nina: ≤ −10%4.3%
About this chart

Grouped bars show the share of below-normal monsoons for El Niño, neutral, and La Niña phases. The critical bar is El Niño: 57.7% of its 26 years ended below normal (15 years). The chance of a severe deficit (more than 10% below LPA) is 30.8% for El Niño versus only 7.4% for neutral. El Niño doesn't cause a drought every time—42% of its years were fine—but it loads the dice heavily. La Niña, the cool phase, flips the odds: only 17.4% of its years were below normal. This chart is the statistical backbone of why a developing El Niño worries meteorologists. It doesn't predict 2026, but it quantifies the danger.

Why this chart It grounds the forecast in observed history: exactly how much does the Pacific matter?

How to read it Compare the height of the 'below normal' bar for El Niño (darkest) against neutral and La Niña. Notice how the risk of deeper deficits also rises.

Watch out The bars show frequency, not a causal law. El Niño increases the chances, but it does not guarantee a drought—42% of El Niño years still got decent rain.

But haven't some El Niño years still brought good rains?

A handful of El Niño monsoons stand as proof that the Pacific does not decide alone. In 1953, rainfall was 10.7% above normal; 1958 finished a stunning 14% above normal; 1983 matched that surplus. Even 1957, with a strong El Niño ( 1.25), saw only a tiny deficit of -0.5%, well inside the normal band. Ten El Niño seasons since 1950 ended near or above normal, nearly half the total.

What made the difference? Often, the Indian Ocean overheated in just the right way. In 1958, for instance, the (IOD) was sharply negative, yet the monsoon thrived, a reminder that the IOD is not the only player. These exceptions do not erase the heightened risk, but they forbid simple headlines that say El Niño equals drought. The 2026 forecast may tilt toward deficit, but history shows that a surprise surplus is still within the realm of possibility.

Chart

Plenty of El Nino years still came out fine

Ten El Niño monsoons since 1950 ended near or above normal, including surpluses like +14% in 1958 and 1983.

El Nino monsoons that finished near-normal or wet · rainfall departure

% rainfall departure
% rainfall departure05%10%195310.7%1957−0.5%195814.0%19634.4%19693.8%19761.9%19773.4%198314.0%1991−1.4%1992−1.4%199413.9%19970.2%20063.4%201911.8%% rainfall departure05%10%195310.7%1957−0.5%195814.0%19634.4%19693.8%19761.9%19773.4%198314.0%1991−1.4%1992−1.4%199413.9%19970.2%20063.4%201911.8%
About this chart

A table or bar chart lists the exceptional El Niño years and their rainfall departures. 1953 had a +10.7% departure; 1958 managed +14% despite a moderate El Niño; 1983 repeated that +14%. Even the strong El Niño of 1957 (ONI 1.25) finished at -0.5%, barely below normal. These years often had help from the Indian Ocean Dipole—or occasionally from other atmospheric patterns. The presence of these exceptions prevents any simple story that El Niño always means poor rains. They are living proof that the Pacific does not rule alone. For 2026, they are a reminder that even if the odds are tilted, a rescue—though not guaranteed—is not impossible.

Why this chart It's the honest counterbalance to the forecast, showing that the data contains hope as well as warning.

How to read it Look for the year and its percentage departure; a green bar or a positive number means surplus, near zero means near normal. Compare with the ONI and DMI values if shown.

Watch out Don't treat these as proof that El Niño is harmless; they are the minority. But they show it's not deterministic.

Can the Indian Ocean save us? The dipole gamble.

The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is a temperature seesaw in the ocean south of India. During its positive phase, the western Indian Ocean warms more than the east, sending extra moisture into the monsoon circulation. In past El Niño years, this pattern acted like a shield. When a positive IOD coincided with El Niño, the average monsoon ended with a negligible departure of -0.3% (based on 5 years). When the IOD was neutral or negative, the average departure deepened to -3.9% (21 years), a clear deficit.

For 2026, the worrying news is that IMD forecasts a neutral IOD during the core monsoon months. That means the ocean rescue that softened the blow in many earlier El Niño monsoons is expected to be absent. However, the relationship is not mechanical. Some years with a positive IOD still turned out dry, and some neutral-IOD years managed to stay near normal. The dipole is a gamble, not a guarantee.

Chart

The second ocean that usually decides the rescue

El Niño monsoons with a positive IOD averaged near normal (-0.3%), while those without it averaged a clear deficit (-3.9%).

Average rainfall in El Nino years, split by the Indian Ocean Dipole · 1950-2025

% mean rainfall departure
% mean rainfall departure0−2%2%4%IN AN EL NINO MONSOONFOR COMPARISONwith a positive Indian OceanDipole−0.3%with a neutral or negative dipole−3.9%All La Nina monsoons5.9%% mean rainfall departure05%IN AN EL NINO MONSOONFOR COMPARISONwith a positive Indian Ocean Dipole−0.3%with a neutral or negative dipole−3.9%All La Nina monsoons5.9%
About this chart

Three bars summarise the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole. For El Niño years that coincided with a positive IOD (5 occasions), the mean rainfall departure was only -0.3%—essentially normal. When the IOD was neutral or negative during El Niño (21 years), the average deficit was -3.9%, a significant shortfall. For comparison, all La Niña monsoons averaged +5.9% surplus. This stark split explains why meteorologists watch the IOD almost as closely as El Niño. In 2026, the IOD is forecast to be neutral, so the 'saviour' bar is not in play. But note that even the positive IOD group had a mix—some years were still dry, showing it's not a perfect shield. The dipole is a powerful modifier, not an on/off switch.

Why this chart It introduces the 2026 wildcard and explains why the absence of a positive IOD makes this El Niño riskier than some past ones.

How to read it Compare the middle bar (El Niño without positive IOD) to the left bar (with positive IOD). The near-zero left bar shows the rescue effect; the negative middle bar shows what happens without it.

Watch out Don't think a positive IOD guarantees a normal monsoon—1972 was a severe drought despite a positive IOD. It's a tilt, not a shield.

Will a weak monsoon make food prices shoot up?

The instinct is to hear "deficient monsoon" and brace for costlier vegetables and dal. But the numbers from past El Niño monsoons refuse to line up neatly. Wholesale food inflation after the monsoon (October to December) has ranged from near zero in 2002 to 23.1% in 1991. The most recent El Niño of 2023, with a modest rainfall deficit of -5.3%, saw food prices rise 7.1%. The worst drought in this record, 2002 with a -20.9% deficit, produced a mere 0.9% food inflation because large public grain stocks held prices down.

Prices answer to many forces: buffer stocks, import policy, global commodity cycles, and the government's ability to move grain where it is needed. A poor monsoon can push prices up, but the link is loose, not mechanical. The 2026 outcome will depend as much on how stocks and trade are managed as on how the rain falls.

Chart

A weak monsoon does not automatically mean dearer food

Post-monsoon wholesale food inflation in El Niño years has ranged from near zero (0.9% in 2002) to over 23% (1991), proving the rain-price link is loose.

Post-monsoon (Oct-Dec) wholesale food inflation in El Nino years · RBI WPI · 1982-2024

% food inflation, year-on-year
% food inflation, year-on-year19878.8%199123.1%19971.1%20020.9%20042.8%200916.9%20154.5%20237.1%% food inflation, year-on-year19878.8%199123.1%19971.1%20020.9%20042.8%200916.9%20154.5%20237.1%
About this chart

This chart shows the year-on-year wholesale food inflation (WPI) for the October-December period after each El Niño monsoon since 1982. The 2002 drought, with a massive -20.9% rainfall deficit, resulted in almost no food inflation (0.9%) because public grain stocks were abundant. In contrast, 1991 saw only a mild -1.4% deficit but 23.1% inflation, driven by broader economic factors. The most recent El Niño of 2023, with -5.3% rain, brought 7.1% food inflation—moderate but noticeable. Prices respond to many forces: buffer stocks, import duties, global commodity trends, and government procurement. The rainfall is just one input. So while a poor 2026 monsoon could push prices up, the historical record shows it is not inevitable.

Why this chart It cuts through the most common fear: that a bad monsoon equals empty pockets. The data shows a far more nuanced story.

How to read it Look at the length of the bar for each year; taller bars mean higher inflation. Compare bars with similar rainfall deficits—like 2002 and 2009—to see how different the price response can be.

Watch out Don't assume a large rainfall deficit always means high inflation; 2002 is the classic counter-example. Policy matters as much as weather.

If agriculture is only 14% of the economy, why worry?

Agriculture's share of India's gross value added () has shrunk dramatically, from 61.7% at the dawn of planning in 1951 to 13.8% by 2026. A weak monsoon, therefore, no longer sends a large direct jolt through the overall GDP numbers. An identical rainfall shock today leaves a much smaller dent in national output than it would have half a century ago.

Yet agriculture still employed 41.6% of India's workers in 2025, down from 63.1% in 1991 but still a staggering number of livelihoods. This gap between output share and employment share is the central tension. A deficient monsoon may be a small event for GVA, but it is a large event for rural households, for landless labourers, and for the price of a meal on their plates. The economy has diversified, but millions of families still look at the sky every June.

Chart

Why the monsoon still matters: two in five jobs

Agriculture has shrunk to 13.8% of the economy (GVA) but still employs 41.6% of India's workers, so a weak monsoon hits livelihoods far harder than GDP.

Agriculture's share of India's output and of its workforce · 1951-2025

% share
0204060%1960198020002020Share of India's workersShare of India's output (GVA)Share of India's workers41.6%Share of India'soutput (GVA)13.8%%02040601960198020002020Share of India's workersShare of India's output (GVA)41.6%41.6%13.8%13.8%
Share of India's workersShare of India's output (GVA)
About this chart

Two lines trace a long story. The GVA share (output) of agriculture fell from 61.7% in 1951 to just 13.8% by 2026. A drought today doesn't make a big dent in overall GDP. But the employment line, while also declining, remains stubbornly high: 41.6% of India's workforce still depends on farming, down from 63.1% in 1991. That means over two in five workers' incomes are tied to the sky. When the monsoon fails, even if the GDP statistic barely moves, millions of households face falling wages, less work, and higher borrowing. The gap between the two lines is the human stake. For every rupee of output lost, there's a disproportionate human cost. This chart explains why newspaper headlines worry, even when economists say the economy can handle it.

Why this chart It's the answer to 'why does it matter anymore?' It shows that while the economic share has declined, the social footprint remains vast.

How to read it The two lines start high and diverge. The steeper decline of the GVA line versus the slower fall of the employment line creates a widening gap—that gap is the vulnerability.

Watch out Don't read the falling GVA line as meaning agriculture is unimportant. The employment line stays above 40%, meaning the pain is concentrated, not eliminated.

Tell me what this means, bro

Okay, but what does this actually mean, macha?

The weather office is saying there's a 60% chance this year's monsoon will finish short, and only a 16% chance it'll be a good season. That's a real heads-up, not a guarantee. Behind it is a warming Pacific—El Niño—which makes a below-par monsoon about twice as likely. But nearly half of past El Niño years still ended up okay. The monsoon is a puzzle, not a machine. The honest take? Keep your umbrella and your patience. We'll know the full picture only in October.

One in six chance of a normal monsoon; history says don't panic yet.

How to read these numbers

Every statistic on this page, unless otherwise noted, comes from the India Meteorological Department's long-range forecast and its historical rainfall archive, supplemented by ENSO and IOD indices from NOAA and WMO, wholesale price data from the RBI, and employment and national accounts estimates from the World Bank and RBI. The 2026 figures are forecast probabilities, not observed outcomes; they are based on IMD's statistical and dynamical models, which carry known margins of error. The historical frequencies, averages, and decade-phase summaries describe past patterns and do not predict 2026 with certainty. The early-season progress is a snapshot as of mid-June and will evolve. The full season answer will only be written in October.

Plain English concepts

long-period average (LPA)

Think of the LPA as the 'average score' for monsoon rainfall over 50 years (currently 1971-2020). It's the benchmark—like a school's average exam result—used to judge whether a particular year's rain is normal, below, or above. It counts total rainfall from June to September. A season at 100% of LPA means rain exactly equaled that average. It does not tell you about floods or dry spells within the season, only the total.

IMD uses LPA percentages to label seasons as normal, below normal, or deficient. The 2026 forecast at 90% of LPA means the season is expected to be 10% below that benchmark, right on the edge of deficient.

El Niño

Imagine the Pacific Ocean as a giant reservoir of heat. Every few years, its central and eastern parts warm up more than usual—that's El Niño. This warmth shifts the large rain-making clouds eastward, away from India. As a result, the monsoon winds that bring rain to the subcontinent often lose steam. It is like a dimmer switch on the monsoon—it might still rain, but the intensity often drops. El Niño is a natural cycle, not a one-off disaster.

A developing El Niño in 2026 is the main reason IMD forecasts a high chance of a deficient monsoon. Its presence roughly doubles the historical odds of a weak monsoon.

La Niña

The opposite of El Niño: the same part of the Pacific cools more than usual. This cooling tends to strengthen the winds that pull rain clouds over India, often leading to a wet monsoon. It's like a booster for the monsoon engine.

La Niña years serve as a comparison. Only 17.4% of them had below-normal monsoons, showing how much the Pacific state tilts the odds.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Picture a seesaw in the Indian Ocean: when the western side (near Africa) is warmer than the east (near Indonesia), it's a positive IOD. That warmth pumps extra moisture into the air, which can feed the monsoon and offset El Niño's drying effect. A negative IOD is the reverse, and often weakens the monsoon.

In past El Niño years, a positive IOD helped rescue the monsoon, keeping rain near normal. For 2026, the IOD is forecast neutral, so that usual rescue is missing.

rainfall departure

A departure is simply the percentage difference from the long-period average. If the LPA is 87 cm and a year gets 78 cm, that's a -10% departure. A positive departure means more rain than average; a negative means less. It's the ruler for measuring monsoon performance.

All historical and forecast monsoon numbers here are expressed as % departure from LPA. A departure beyond -10% marks a deficient monsoon—the red zone.

ONI (Oceanic Niño Index)

The ONI is the standard thermometer for El Niño. It measures how much the sea surface in a key part of the Pacific differs from the average. A reading above +0.5°C means El Niño conditions; below -0.5°C means La Niña. It does not measure anything about the monsoon directly, only the Pacific's temperature.

The ONI values in the exceptions chart show that even strong El Niño events (like 1957 with an ONI of 1.25) did not ruin the monsoon, underscoring that the Pacific doesn't operate alone.

DMI (Dipole Mode Index)

The DMI is the Indian Ocean's answer to the ONI. It tracks the temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive DMI signals a positive IOD.

In the table of El Niño exceptions, the DMI helps identify when a positive IOD might have offset El Niño's dryness, though the relationship is not perfect.

WPI (Wholesale Price Index)

The WPI measures prices at the wholesale level—what a middleman pays a farmer for wheat, for example—not the price you pay at the kirana store. It covers goods sold in bulk. Food WPI tracks food articles like cereals, pulses, and vegetables.

The food inflation numbers after past El Niño monsoons are based on WPI, reminding us that retail prices can behave differently. A weak monsoon does not automatically mean high WPI food inflation, as buffer stocks and imports matter too.

GVA (gross value added)

GVA is the value of output less the cost of materials used up in production. For agriculture, it's the total value of crops, livestock, and related products minus expenses on seeds, fertiliser, and other inputs. Think of it as the net contribution of a sector to the economy. GDP adds taxes on products and subtracts subsidies.

Agriculture's share of GVA has fallen to 13.8%, meaning a weak monsoon's direct hit on overall national output is much smaller than in the 1950s. But livelihoods tell a different story.

model error

A forecast model isn't a crystal ball; it has a typical range of error. For IMD's long-range monsoon forecast, that error is about 4–5% of LPA. That means the actual rainfall could be a few percentage points above or below the forecast without the model being 'wrong'.

The revision from 92% to 90% is well within this error band, so it shouldn't be read as a precise worsening but as a signal that the risks are tilting further.

The data behind this article

Built from 9 data series across 4 sources, with data through 2026.

IMD3Derived IMD NOAA3RBI DBIE2World Bank1

Sources

  1. India Meteorological Department, Long Range Forecast update for the 2026 southwest monsoon, issued 29 May 2026 (PIB release)
  2. India Meteorological Department, all-India and regional southwest monsoon rainfall, 1901-2025
  3. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
  4. NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Dipole Mode Index for the Indian Ocean Dipole, HadISST, 1870 onward (data file)
  5. Reserve Bank of India, Database on Indian Economy (DBIE): wholesale food price index and national accounts for agriculture's share of GVA
  6. World Bank WDI, employment in agriculture, modelled ILO estimate (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), India

What these numbers cannot show

  • All 2026 figures are forecast probabilities, not observed outcomes; the final monsoon rainfall total will only be known after September 2026.
  • Historical frequencies and averages describe past patterns and do not guarantee the 2026 outcome; the monsoon system has no memory and each year is an independent roll of the dice.
  • The monsoon's progress in June is provisional and not predictive of the full season; the first few weeks are climatologically the most variable.
  • Food inflation response to a monsoon shortfall depends on buffer stocks, trade policy, global commodity prices, and government grain management—not just rainfall—so a weak monsoon does not automatically mean high food prices.
  • Employment data from World Bank models are estimates with reporting lags and should be interpreted as broad trends rather than precise point measurements. The agriculture employment share can vary across different national surveys.
Every data series behind this article (9)

Every figure traces to a source file you can open, pinned to the data as of 19 Oct 2026. Browse the data folder on GitHub ↗

  • All-India southwest monsoon rainfall departure, 1901-2025data file ↗ IMD · 1901–2025
  • Does the Indian Ocean rescue an El Nino monsoon?data file ↗ Derived IMD NOAA El Nino monsoons that coincided with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole averaged near-normal rainfall; those without averaged a clear deficit. The dipole softens the blow on average - but 1972 was a severe drought despite a positive dipole, so it is a tilt, not a shield.
  • El Nino years that still had near-normal or surplus monsoon rainfalldata file ↗ Derived IMD NOAA
  • Employment in agriculturedata file ↗ World Bank · 1991–2025
  • Food prices after an El Nino monsoon, 1982-2024data file ↗ RBI DBIE Average October-December year-on-year wholesale inflation in food articles, for every El Nino monsoon since the WPI series begins in 1982. YoY computed within each base period before splicing.
  • IMD nudged its 2026 forecast down as El Nino firmed updata file ↗ IMD IMD classes 96-104% of LPA as 'normal'. Both 2026 forecasts sit below that band. Model error was +/-5% in April, tightened to +/-4% in the May update.
  • IMD's 2026 monsoon forecast: the odds tilt to a shortfalldata file ↗ IMD IMD updated Long Range Forecast, 29 May 2026. 'Deficient' + 'below normal' = 84% probability the season finishes below normal.
  • Weak-monsoon frequency by ENSO phase, 1950-2025data file ↗ Derived IMD NOAA
  • Why an identical drought hurts the economy less than it used todata file ↗ RBI DBIE · 1951–2026 Agriculture, forestry & fishing as a share of real GVA. As the share falls, a given monsoon shock moves headline GDP less - though it still moves rural incomes and food prices.
Cite this article CC BY 4.0, free to reuse with credit

Bhuvanesh. “Is India's 2026 monsoon in trouble?” This Indian Life, October 2026. https://thisindianlife.today/articles/is-the-2026-monsoon-in-trouble/

BibTeX 
@misc{tilife-isthe2026monsoonintrouble,
  author    = {Bhuvanesh},
  title     = {Is India's 2026 monsoon in trouble?},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {This Indian Life},
  url       = {https://thisindianlife.today/articles/is-the-2026-monsoon-in-trouble/}
}
APA

Bhuvanesh. (2026). Is India's 2026 monsoon in trouble? This Indian Life. https://thisindianlife.today/articles/is-the-2026-monsoon-in-trouble/

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Published 6 Jul 2026 Updated 19 Oct 2026
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